So after trying my luck on estimating the VS 2012 RC release date, with mixed results, I thought I would have a go at the RTM release date. So I hope this prophecy will be slightly more convincing, not being made on the same day of the release. :P
The new estimate is done almost the exact same way as with the RC estimate. The only 2 things that have changes is; firstly, we now have an extra sample point for the historical data which makes the estimate slightly better. Secondly, the date that I am estimating from, is now the RC release date; May 31st, instead of the Beta release date.
The new estimate is:
So as you can see this estimates that there is a 50% probability thet the RTM will be delivered before September 9th, or 95% probability that it will be delivered before November 1st. Finally there is a 0,02% chance that it won't be delivered in 2012. :)
Another thing I would like to mention is that the new chart is made using LinqPad and the OxyPlot library, which is by far the best and most versatile charting library I've ever tried for .Net. The previous chart was made using LinqPad and Excel which is ok, but lacks versatility and the ability to add annotations, which I had to add in Photoshop. Also the Excel charts suffers from the lack of anti-aliasing.